The list of forecasts pointing to a continued rise in the housing market in 2026 is growing. The latest comes from the Real Estate Business School (Rebs), which has prepared a report together with the University of Malaga.
According to the new edition of the Real Estate Barometer, housing transactions, prices, mortgage signings, and building permits will grow strongly both this year and next, in some cases with double-digit increases.
The study forecasts a year-on-year increase in 2025 of 16.3% in new home sales, 11.2% in second-hand home sales, and 9% in mortgages. Looking ahead to 2026, it expects a 7.6% increase in new home transactions and 8.7% in second-hand homes, while mortgage contracts will stabilize (+0.4% compared to 2025).
Rebs and the University of Malaga estimate that in 2026 new home sales will reach nearly 169,000 units (134,896 in 2024), and second-hand home sales will exceed 612,000 (505,993 in 2024). Mortgages are expected to reach almost 429,600, compared with 392,440 last year.
Prices are also expected to rise further. According to the latest Real Estate Barometer, new home prices will rise slightly in 2025 and then accelerate by 6.1% in 2026, reaching an average of over €305,000 (compared with €287,553 in 2024). Second-hand homes are forecast to increase by 6.6% in 2025 and 5.5% in 2026, reaching an average of €204,327 (versus €184,295 last year).
Another rising factor is the average mortgage amount, already at levels seen during the housing bubble due to higher prices and banks’ appetite for lending. Rebs and the University of Malaga estimate an increase of more than 35% in 2025 (from €145,687 to €197,701) and a further 13.7% rise in 2026, surpassing €224,000.
The upward trend in the residential market also extends to supply, with expected increases in permits, housing starts, and completions.
In particular, a double-digit increase is forecast for permits and housing starts in 2025, while completions will barely grow (+0.44%). For 2026, more moderate increases are expected for permits and starts, but completions could accelerate and exceed 100,000 units.
Keys to more affordable housing
At the report’s presentation, José Antonio Pérez Ramírez, director of the Real Estate Business School (Rebs), stressed that insufficient new supply affects the second-hand market. In his opinion, “demand, far exceeding supply, keeps upward pressure on prices, especially in the second-hand segment, where one in three deals is even paid in cash.”
For him, the key to making housing more accessible in Spain lies in “a model that combines bank financing for public or subsidized land with European aid. This is the way to promote the social and affordable housing the market needs.”
He also emphasized the role of small players in the sector, highlighting that “the most important focus is on cooperatives and microprojects spread throughout the country, which is where real demand is concentrated.”
Source: Idealista – Ana P. Alarcos – 17 September 2025, 6:01